Hi, it's Wayne Wagner again. I've had my head buried in the books and in the videos and in the research today and I want to give you the case for optimism here regarding Coronavirus. It really comes down to two things.
When Will Coronavirus Peak?
First of all, three to five weeks from now, generally somewhere in the 30 to 45 day period from where we are right now, this virus is going to peak. We're going to get through this. We look at where the numbers are in China, where the numbers are in Japan, where the numbers are in Korea, Italy, so on and so forth.
We're running about 30 to 45 days from peak right now. So we're going to hit peak. And once this virus begins to subside, things will begin to recover.
Trusting Strong Economic Fundamentals
Secondly, the fundamentals of the economy coming into this event were very, very strong. There are about four things that really impede the ability of the economy recover:
The tax situation
The Federal Reserve
Those four things are all going to be very accommodative as we come through this and out the other side. The first quarter this year, economically speaking, is going to be very challenging. Second quarter is likely going to be economically a wreck.
Looking Beyond Coronavirus
The stock market ultimately is a forward looking indicator looking at where things will be down the road. We think that a lot of the worst case scenarios have been priced in. It's not to say we have seen the bottom. It's not to say things won't get worse for the market. They may, but we think that the underpinnings of the economy are very strong.
We believe at this stage there's no reason to believe that we're not going to get through this. This virus is going to peak and we're going to get back on track with the fundamentals of a very strong economy as we move through the summer and into the fall.
If you have questions, as always, please feel free to reach out to us. You're never an inconvenience or an interruption. We love to hear from you. Have a great day. Have a great week.